The global air transport sector faces a monumental challenge: achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. For an industry historically reliant on fossil fuels, this means a profound transformation. The journey on how the entire industry can reach net zero is not defined by a single solution, but by a range of pathways. ATAG’s recently updated Waypoint 2050 report shows how aviation is rewiring itself through a series of shifts: more efficient operations, a rapid scale‑up of sustainable aviation fuels, technological innovations on the ground and in the air as well as market-based measures and carbon removals.
In this article, we move past the headlines and into those shifts – outlining how aviation’s energy system is changing, how key technologies are progressing and which decisions will define the sector’s route to net zero.
New aircraft burn less fuel per passenger thanks to better aerodynamics, lighter materials and more efficient engines. These advancements have already driven a 54% reduction in carbon emissions per seat kilometre since 1990. This continuous improvement has allowed the industry to avoid 14.6 billion tonnes of CO2 over the last three decades. The transition is set to accelerate as 15,000 new-technology aircraft are expected to enter service over the next several years. Measures like optimised flight paths and weight reduction further cut fuel use, serving as a core efficiency pillar that lowers the total energy use across the sector.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a non-fossil-fuel alternative, capable of reducing lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80%. Instead of crude oil, SAF is made from feedstock such as used cooking oil, fats and household waste. Newer production pathways convert alcohol to jet fuel or even capture carbon from the atmosphere and convert it into fuel.
In most net‑zero scenarios, SAF delivers the largest share of emissions reductions by 2050, which means moving rapidly from today’s very small volumes of less than 1% of global jet fuel use to large‑scale production.
The challenge is not whether today’s aircraft can be fuelled with SAF – they can! But the challenge is the price. As the fairly new SAF market is just building up, there’s a premium on every litre of SAF deployed, meaning the alternative fuels can cost two to five times more than conventional jet fuel in many markets. That is why clear long‑term policies, strong demand signals and major investment from energy suppliers, airlines and corporate customers are essential.
Electric, hybrid‑electric and hydrogen propulsion technologies are emerging for shorter routes, adding new options for how aircraft are powered in the future. To make these technologies viable, airports, energy providers and regulators must plan now for a massive expansion of infrastructure. This includes the rapid development of global supply chains for green hydrogen production, storage and distribution at scale. Because these new energy sources are resource intensive, the sector is calling for a significant increase in renewable electricity generation to ensure that the transition to hydrogen and electric flight is truly carbon neutral. Decisions taken over the next five years will determine how quickly these technologies can move from pilot projects to everyday operations in the 2030s and 2040s.
Even in ambitious scenarios, some emissions remain, especially in the early stages of the transition. The industry can address its remaining emissions by supporting global climate projects and using carbon removal technologies. These 'market-based measures' involve investing in verified programs that reduce CO2 elsewhere, while carbon removals use natural or technological methods to physically pull existing CO2 out of the atmosphere. These solutions are essential, provided they act as a final step on top of the industry’s own aggressive flight-technology improvements and follow strict, high-quality standards.
No single player can deliver net‑zero aviation alone. It comes down to collaboration across the board: Airlines, airports, manufacturers, air navigation service providers, governments, energy suppliers and the finance sector each hold a vital piece of the puzzle.
While the industry invests in efficiency measures and commits to long‑term fuel purchases, governments must provide the stable policy framework and infrastructure needed to make these solutions viable at scale. To stay on track for 2050, the sector is calling for urgent acceleration across five key pillars: the rapid scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel production, continued global support for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), the faster deployment of latest-generation aircraft, the modernisation of air traffic management, and the development of affordable carbon removal technologies.
The pace of these developments over the next five years will decide whether aviation’s net‑zero pathway can be reached by 2050 or becomes significantly steeper and more expensive. Aviation has a credible plan to reach net zero, but that credibility depends on immediate action.