Today I am in Houston attending the Sustainable Aviation Futures Congress. As we are in the oil capital of the world, it’s an opportune time to look back at the progress we have made in the space of our energy system. As an industry, we have come a long way over the last decade. Until 2008, the idea of using alternative drop-in fuels for aviation seemed far-fetched. Back then, few believed that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could be a real solution to decarbonise the sector.
Fast forward to today, and SAF has become the cornerstone of aviation's decarbonisation strategy. The whole aviation industry and even governments meeting at ICAO have committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Over 40 countries are implementing SAF policies, along with commitments from over 50 airlines - representing over 40% of global air traffic - to incorporate SAF into their operations. On the supply side, we are witnessing a promising ramp-up in SAF production, although we need to accelerate that growth even more. It seems like everyone is fully committed to making this energy transition a reality. Almost everyone.
There is an elephant in the room: our traditional energy suppliers. While some major oil companies have made investments in SAF production, these efforts have been relatively small-scale, particularly compared with their conventional fuel production. What we haven’t seen is a long-term commitment from these companies to fully embrace the energy transition.
In fact, during the first decade of discussions on SAF, some traditional energy companies actively worked to slow down or stop action on SAF and put all sorts of blockers in place, such as technical objections to pipeline use; access to airport infrastructure or focusing on alternative solutions such as offsetting instead of SAF. Instead of the big well-known oil companies, the growth in SAF production has been driven by smaller new industry players such as Gevo, LanzaJet, SkyNRG, SAF One, and World Energy. These companies are going through the tough start-up process to secure financing, develop technology, construct plants and invest in sustainable pathways, often with limited resources. Their efforts are critical to kickstarting the aviation energy transition.
Fossil fuels have powered global transport for more than a century, ensuring great profits for those who produce them. Over the last decade, the 15 largest oil producers in the world have made an accumulated profit of $3.7 trillion. Aviation has contributed to these profits by spending $1.7 trillion on fuel during the same period.
Now is the time to rethink. It is time to address the elephant in the room. The traditional energy sector must prioritise long-term global stability over short-term returns. We need oil suppliers to truly commit to SAF production, invest in research and new production facilities and refinery conversions, and use their financial resources to support the development of SAF.
It’s time for them to stop working to slow SAF action and instead fully engage in the energy transition and think long-term. In my speech today, I outlined what I would like to see the traditional energy sector do to show progress:
- a solid commitment by our traditional energy producers to the aviation energy transition
- a commitment to guarantee access for new energy companies to airport fuelling infrastructure
- start thinking with a long-term strategic view of the energy system
- stick to their commitments and announcements
- stop the self-serving advertising and PR about your climate commitments
- transparency to airlines and consumers - of the type of SAF and cost of SAF as part of mandates
- stop working against SAF action.
If they commit now, returns will follow: SkyNRG suggests that current production schedules would meet around 17 million tonnes of SAF demand in 2030. That’s good news and with the hope that more will be announced in the coming months and years, perhaps 20 million tonnes capacity by 2030 is a possibility. There is a huge market to be built.
The future of both industries—aviation and energy—depends on a common approach to what is probably the most important challenge of our generation. Now is the time to come together and take bold steps towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions. We need to ensure that this transition becomes a reality, not just for aviation, but for the planet.