The ICAO Aviation Climate Week, which is taking place in Montréal over the coming days, is an opportunity to reflect on the overall progress made on civil aviation’s path towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Just a few years ago, the idea of reaching this goal may have seemed like a long shot. Today, the entire aviation sector continues to be committed to this goal – a message all aviation sector participants reaffirmed this morning in Montreal. It remains ambitious and certainly not without its challenges, but it is no longer a distant dream: it is a work in progress. With this clear 2050 goal in sight, there has been a move towards championing more policy support in many countries, and greater investment in the decarbonisation of the sector.
Just to highlight a few examples of how far we have come over the last five years:
These industry actions are supported by governments across the globe: Around 45 countries, are now developing or implementing policies to speed up the uptake of the approximately 23 million tonnes of SAF needed by 2030. None of this progress has happened in isolation. ICAO has in many ways facilitated not just a joint commitment but is supporting its realisation.
The path to net zero carbon is driven by multilateralism. The agreement by ICAO Member States on a long-term aspirational goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 was a shining example of what we can accomplish if we all agree on a common denominator. ICAO’s role in coordinating this progress cannot be overstated: By bringing together more than 190 nations, ICAO provides the forum for States to coordinate action, align policies, and implement frameworks that serve as solutions for climate action on a global scale.
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – the first-ever global market-based measure for any sector – is one example of how ICAO has helped to turn ambition into action. Airlines will need to purchase $20-30 billion in approved offsets for 1.2-2 billion tonnes of CO2. This represents around 70% of the growth in international air transport emissions during the lifetime of the scheme. This is the result of extensive negotiations by developed and developing countries, the ICAO system, industry and civil society, and represents a measure that will be effective without having a disproportionately negative impact on developing nations and their capacity for growth. A total of 130 states have now volunteered for the first stage (a new addition from Dominca which joined today), making it likely to be one of the most successful UN-level carbon management projects.
The progress of recent years has been truly encouraging. We have moved from aspiration to action and built a strong foundation for the next phase of aviation’s net zero journey, but we must acknowledge and actively address the challenges on the way. The hardest work of scaling up from those first millions of tonnes of SAF to the hundreds of millions needed, and deploying new technologies at global scale, still lies ahead. Achieving our objective will require nothing less than a concerted push from all of us in the coming decades.
This is a call to action for every stakeholder in aviation’s ecosystem. Governments have shown leadership through ICAO; now we urge them to continue translating that leadership into concrete national policies and international collaboration. Meanwhile, industry partners such as airlines, airports, manufacturers, fuel producers, and air navigation service providers continue to invest, innovate, and share their knowledge. Institutions and energy companies, too, are critical players; the latter of which have recently scaled back their initial commitments on SAF production. It is up to governments to introduce measures that will hold oil companies truly accountable and ensure their crucial support in the scale-up of SAF. It will take unified ambition from all corners to overcome the hurdles of this energy transition, whether it’s improving the economic viability of SAF, commercialising hydrogen and electric propulsion systems, or upgrading infrastructure across the world.
The next three to five years will be a vital time for the decarbonisation of our sector. We need to demonstrate a continued commitment, to ensure that the early gains we’ve seen can be solidified into long-term transformation. Air traffic will continue to increase every year to serve a global population that sees great benefits in connectivity, and with it the need to decouple carbon emissions from growth becomes even more important. As impacts are felt by citizens with more frequent flooding and wildfires, climate change will increasingly be a part of public consciousness, with greater demands for political, consumer and corporate action. Most importantly, multilateralism on a global scale will continue to be crucial to future success, removing barriers and allowing the industry to innovate at scale. I look forward to discussing the next chapter of this journey at the ICAO Aviation Climate Week in the coming days.