Children around the world know the game snakes and ladders, where a boost in your quest to reach the goal comes in the form of a ladder and every now and then you step on a snake and have to go back several steps. It’s fun for the whole family, but also a useful analogy for embarking on any ambitious journey.
I explored that analogy in front of a room of 400 aviation sector experts this morning at the International Civil Aviation Organization Climate Week in Montreal. On stage with me was Michael Lunter Mathilde Tannous Dr. Alejandro Block and in our case that journey is decarbonisation of the air transport system. An energy transition for an entire industry is a challenge that inevitably comes with both snakes and ladders in the journey.
The snakes
As with any massive transition, there will be setbacks along the way. A new technology which didn’t work out. A start-up that couldn’t make it past the initial rounds of funding. Supply chain disruptions slowing the delivery of new, more efficient aircraft. A SAF pathway that could present challenges related to feedstock production.
All of these have been experienced over the past few years. We will experience more. The key is learning from those problems or discoveries and finding ways to mitigate or avoid them when we try again.
The ladders
At the same time, we have some real boosts in the quest. A global climate agreement to align behind net zero for aviation. The first market-based measure for any global sector. A vision for SAF deployment that leads to policy action in countries around the world. A new technology breaking through development. First-of-a-kind SAF and carbon removal technologies moving from pilot phase to commercial deployment. Aircraft and engine manufacturers continue to invest billions in next-generation propulsion technologies.
These are the big leaps forward that help drive ambition.
The steady progress
What feels different today compared with ten years ago is that decarbonisation is no longer a niche conversation taking place on the margins of the industry. It is now firmly embedded in boardrooms, government policy discussions, investment decisions and product development roadmaps. The debate has shifted from whether aviation can decarbonise to how quickly we can scale the solutions needed to get there.
As with the children's game itself, despite the snakes (and driven further by the ladders), the players all steadily move forward anyway. That is our mission. The road to decarbonisation is not going to be a linear one, moving ahead at a steady pace. There will be bumps. But we should keep the broader mission in mind.
The key is finding ways to shrink the snakes in our journey and lengthen the ladders. To keep learning from each other how to accelerate the progress as much as possible. As I said to those experts that are driving the world many of whom are in Montreal this week, when you step back from the details and the challenges that inevitably present themselves, you can actually sense a shift in the air.
Decarbonisation is coming.