Today we have launched a new analysis on how the aviation sector’s decarbonisation is progressing and, most importantly, the urgency of actions that need to take place in the next five years.
Air transport connects people and businesses, enables trade and tourism, and supports more than 86.5 million jobs globally. Every year, 4.4 billion people travel by air on board of more than 35 million commercial flights. The more than 29,000 commercial aircraft in service today serve a global network of over 67,000 routes.
And demand for air travel will continue to grow – at an estimated 3.8% per year out to 2050.
That growth comes with a responsibility: how can aviation keep connecting the world while tackling its impact on the climate? Today, global aviation accounts for around 2% of global carbon emissions, which is why the entire air transport sector – from airlines, to airports, air navigation service providers and manufacturers – has committed to a global effort towards decarbonisation.
As governments and businesses around the world step up climate action in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, global air transport is tackling its own climate impact. In 2021, at ICAO’s 41st Assembly in Montreal, governments supported the industry approach, marking the first time a global sector-wide net-zero target was agreed at a multilateral level.
A monumental challenge
Reaching this goal is a monumental challenge for an industry so heavily reliant of fossil fuels. Yet difficulty should not be confused with impossibility. Nor should it obscure the real progress already being made.
As a sector, we have come a long way since the first commercial jet aircraft took flight – over the last 35 years alone, efficiency improvements have led to a 54% reduction in per seat kilometre carbon emissions. More than a third of the global fleet today consists of the latest generation aircraft whose carbon emissions per seat kilometre are comparable to those of a small car at average-occupancy. A further 15,000 new-technology aircraft are expected to enter service, accelerating efficiency gains across the global fleet.
Airports are improving ground operations, infrastructure and energy use. Air navigation service providers are advancing more efficient flight paths and airspace modernisation. Manufacturers continue to advance electric and hydrogen propulsion technologies. Early development of hybrid-electric and hydrogen aircraft for shorter-range operations is promising, even as these technologies mature over the longer term and may have a limited short-term impact for reaching the industry’s 2050 goal.
Yet, the effort of decarbonising in less than 25 years requires global actions that exceed everything the sector has undertaken over the last decades – and it is incredibly hard. I have often been asked lately “is net zero carbon by 2050 realistic for the aviation sector?” It’s an understandable enquiry, but the question is not whether net zero aviation is possible, but how we enable it and, critically, what must happen in the next five years to ensure we remain on course for 2050.
This is what we aim to outline in the third edition of Waypoint 2050, which takes stock of the industry’s progress so far and shows where global efforts can have the most impact.
Waypoint 2050 is the result of collaboration of 150 experts from across the air transport sector, investigating how to accelerate the path to net zero aviation.
Net zero 2050 is achievable
The scale-up of technologies, alternative fuels as well as operational and infrastructure improvements now needs to accelerate, and it is here that we have the key message of this edition of Waypoint 2050: net zero carbon for aviation is achievable, but it will require significant support to be in place in the next five years to ensure we are on course for 2050.
Despite recent challenges, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions and rising costs, air transport continues to make progress towards net zero. Governments, energy providers, financiers and the aviation industry itself must now work together more closely than ever to convert ambition into action.
Sustainable aviation fuel at the centre
Across all credible pathways to net zero, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is central. It remains crucial to reducing aviation’s lifecycle emissions, with the potential to deliver up to an 80% reduction when compared with conventional jet fuel.
Around 45 countries are now developing or implementing policies to support the approximately 23 million tonnes of SAF needed by 2030. Global SAF production reached around one million tonnes in 2024, roughly doubling the production of the previous year, and it doubled again in 2025. While this still represents only around 0.7% of total jet fuel use today, there is an exponential growth trajectory – it is showing signs of slowing this year, but we need that momentum to be not only maintained but actually accelerated.
Around 140 SAF production projects are underway, led by more than 100 producers across more than 30 countries. As of today, there are 11 approved production pathways, with a further 11 under assessment, expanding the range of feedstocks and technologies and enabling broader geographic participation, including in developing economies.
More than 170 airports are already distributing SAF and airlines representing around 45% of global traffic have announced voluntary targets to use between 5% and 30% SAF by 2030.
This momentum is real, but it must be accelerated and scaled through the right support mechanisms. Stable policy frameworks, investment certainty and globally coherent approaches, including book-and-claim systems, are essential to unlock production at the pace and scale required.
Technology, operations and system-wide efficiency
Technology and innovation remain fundamental to aviation’s decarbonisation pathway. The past five years have seen both challenges and significant advances across aircraft design, propulsion systems and materials. Several next-generation aircraft programmes are progressing towards entry into service over the next two decades.
At the same time, operational and infrastructure improvements can deliver near-term benefits. More efficient air traffic management, improved airport operations and smarter flight planning can reduce emissions today, often faster than aircraft fleet renewal.
Addressing residual emissions
Even with maximum deployment of efficiency measures, SAF and new technologies, some residual emissions will remain. These must be addressed through robust market-based measures and carbon removals.
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) remains a cornerstone of the sector’s near-term climate strategy. Participation has expanded from 88 to 130 States since 2021, demonstrating growing global alignment. Ensuring the availability of high-quality emissions units and scaling credible carbon dioxide removal solutions will be essential to achieving net zero.
A shared responsibility
Waypoint 2050 is not a prescriptive roadmap. It is a global framework that highlights where action is most urgently needed and where collective effort can deliver the greatest impact. Governments, industry, investors and energy providers all have critical roles to play. National strategies and corporate plans must now translate ambition into results.
This is a generational challenge and a generational responsibility. The foundations are in place. The technologies are advancing. The direction is clear.
What matters now is pace.
With the right support, aviation can reach net zero carbon by 2050. The question is no longer whether it can be done, but whether we act quickly enough to make it happen.