Why net-zero remains an important vision

I just spoke at Cranfield University’s Growing Sustainably Conference. It was a good opportunity to take a step back and reflect on where the aviation sustainability conversation really is right now. I was pleased to return to the university’s DARTeC Centre, the Digital Aviation Research and Technology Centre, especially to speak to students who will shape the future of this industry.

In my conversations with stakeholders across the globe – from politicians to diplomats, engineers, other business groups and the academic community – we share the aviation vision for helping to support economic development, connectivity amongst people and business, trade and tourism all whilst pursuing a reduction in our environmental footprint – the net zero strategy.

The conversation has changed

It is hard to miss the fact that the conversation around sustainability has shifted over the last year. It’s coming from a few directions:

• Geopolitical shifts which may seem obvious and partisan. And whilst they can be so to a great extent, there are some underlying long-term geopolitics at play which can’t be ignored.
• The fact that some in the business community – namely finance and traditional energy – are using this political shift as an excuse to pull back on more ambitious approaches to the challenge.
• And more fundamental than that, a realisation amongst many others in both business and politics that the transition to net zero, or the decarbonisation of our economy, is going to cost. And those costs are starting to be felt.

We also need to be honest about the scale of what is involved. Despite the fact that the cost of solar and wind power is now at record lows, the development of the infrastructure requires investment, and a lot of it.

The real cost of transition

We are getting to that crunch point in the journey when we realise we have had access to an incredible form of cheap energy for the last 150 years… oil and coal. We are going to have to force ourselves off that, just as we did with the whale oil industry in the late 1800s. Not because we ran out of whales, but because something better came along.

This time around, the cost imperative is not immediately there. There will be a short-term increased cost to the transition. It will pay off with reduced costs later on – especially in the externalities we should be accounting for as a society.

And making the transition now will cost less than trying to do it in 10 years from now. In truth, if we had started the transition when we first knew about the climate impacts of fossil fuels it would have cost an awful lot less. There are also significant job opportunities from the cleaner energy transition and some suggestions that the faster the transition, the more beneficial to jobs it will be. [https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/12/05/iea-slow-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-would-cost-over-a-million-energy-sector-jobs/]

Decarbonising air transport

This is a discussion which is far wider than air transport, but many of the same themes apply. Aviation operates within a much wider energy and economic system. Many of the challenges we face are shared across sectors.

That said, aviation has taken a responsible and structured approach to decarbonisation. The industry has been clear about the pathways that will deliver the biggest emissions reductions, while recognising that aviation plays a critical role in global connectivity and economic development.

This means balancing a complex set of interests: the pure business concerns of airlines; cost pressures on passengers; carbon emissions of course; but also the global nature of our sector – we fly to countries which have not yet developed their aviation markets the way we have in the developed world.

We haven’t pretended that reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 would be easy. Instead, we’ve set out a clear strategy for decarbonisation that recognises the scale of the challenge, but also the fact that net zero by 2050 remains within reach if we act now.

And that point matters. Despite supply chain disruption, geopolitics and cost pressures, aviation decarbonisation is making progress. But urgent action is required to accelerate the scale-up and deployment of key measures to get us to our common goal.

Balancing ambition and practicality

What we are seeing now is a response of balancing ambition with practicality. There was for a while an excess of what could almost be termed “performative sustainability”.

Regulators (especially in Europe) jumping on every possible element of the climate action without remembering that whilst policy ends at national borders, carbon does not. This is a journey that we need the whole world to come on board with – especially places where their key concern is the health, education and economic growth of their population.

Aviation is an economic driver for most of the world, so there is no chance that countries will put that in jeopardy. With discussions at ICAO, we have really strived to ensure that the balance between supporting growing traffic and not CO2 emissions.

I am seeing a reduction in that performative sustainability, but that needs to be replaced with pragmatic trajectories which ensure we can reap the benefits of connectivity growth, but without the carbon cost.

Why a long-term net-zero vision matters

Keeping a long-term vision to reach net zero carbon emissions is vital to align the sector with global climate action and meet society's demand for more sustainable mobility. Maintaining a strong net-zero trajectory isn’t just the right thing to do environmentally, it helps create the political and social space for action to happen.

It shows that the sector is serious about its responsibilities and serves as an important framework to create the right conditions for the continued growth in the economic and social benefits of air travel around the world. With that shared direction, aviation’s energy transition is not only about cutting emissions. It is about creating new jobs, diversifying energy supply, and securing the sector’s future.

The climate debate can sometimes feel too polarised for sensible discussion. But public support for climate action is actually far stronger than many people assume. In fact, large majorities consistently support stronger action, but that support often stays quiet. The ranking of that concern shifts as other, more immediate, concerns come to the fore – right now cost of living and global conflict are top of mind as you’d expect.

But a few things will happen which may raise public consciousness on the issue to levels that we have seen before – remember the days of ‘flight shame’ before Covid hit.

• One is an improving financial situation as the economic cycles continue to do what they always have done – go through periods of turbulence and periods of prosperity. People who are less concerned about money start being more concerned about environmental factors such as climate. The world may be in a rocky patch economically right now, but it will smooth out as it always does.
• Secondly, as climate impacts become more apparent in peoples’ lives, they will force political action much faster than we are currently seeing it. Already people are seeing the incidence of flooding or storminess really becoming noticeable. Give it 5 or 6 more years and those concerns will lead to political pressure to act.
• Thirdly, the insurance markets will push action through business channels as climate effects crash into premiums.

An industry ready for future political and public pressure is one that will be in a much better position to thrive. This is why aviation’s continued pursuit of decarbonisation our acceleration towards net zero is so vital.

Just as we do with our best-in-class safety culture, it just makes sense to have a robust cooperative strategy when it comes to climate as well.