It seems almost impossible to someone living in 2026 that 200 years ago a majority of the world relied on whale blubber to see at night. In a few short decades after 1850 the whale oil industry went from being the predominant source of heating and lighting fuel to non-existent. As whale populations declined, whalers were forced to travel further and further to secure their catch, driving up costs and constraining supply. It was the start of an energy transition triggered by scarcity, economics, logistics and supply and demand factors.
At around the same time, technological advancements enabled coal to be converted into liquid fuel, while crude oil could be refined into a series of products suitable for heating and transportation. Coal- and steam-powered ships were replaced with fuel oil, petroleum enabled the rise of the automobile, and jet fuel followed in rapid succession. Oil was portable and powerful. And once you started extracting it from the ground it provided all the energy the world needed. It is also true to say that crude oil products were simply better than what they replaced. National strategic and military objectives further accelerated the shift.
That same pattern of scarcity, innovation and substitution continues to shape energy systems today. However, the scale and stakes are now far greater.
Crude oil products have served us well for the last 150 years. But they have also come with some notable downsides:
These factors have led to a susceptibility of global supply chains, transport and economies to shocks caused by energy crises, the exact situation we are facing right now.
The current crisis – leading to constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil flows – is the latest reminder of this vulnerability. As a result, jet fuel averaged $195 a barrel in the week ending 27 March, doubling from the month earlier and 117% higher than the average price paid in 2025[8]. Aside from the higher fuel prices, Countries are preparing for potential shortages in fuel, including jet fuel, with rationing not far away. Airlines are already considering reduced operations to reflect both higher cost of energy but also simple fuel supply factors.
This is, hopefully, a short-lived crisis. If it continues too much longer, constraints will have a more profound effect on the ability to connect and the global economy. Airlines are forced to prioritise more profitable routes and pause those with thinner margins. For the most part those are leisure routes which will have an outsized impact on tourism-reliant areas of the world. Already, the World Travel and Tourism Council is predicting the conflict is costing some $600 million a day to economies in the middle east most affected[9], but those impacts will also be felt in other parts of the world as airlines rationalise routes to respond to the fuel situation. The long-term effects could be profound.
This should also serve as another reminder to the world and the aviation sector of the vulnerability of our energy supply. It provides a significant incentive for us to think more comprehensively about our energy future. Over the past decade, steps have been taken to support the development and use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). SAF is not only a tool for decarbonisation, but it also should be seen as a strategic lever to rebalance and strengthen the global energy system.
One of its key advantages is the potential to diversify energy supply geographically – from 22 countries producing most of the fossil fuel, to probably 150 countries with the possibility to produce SAF at some scale.
SAF also enables diversification of energy inputs. Instead of relying on a single primary resource, it can be produced from a range of feedstocks, including waste and residues, non-food crops, hydrogen and direct air capture. Currently there are 8 pathways approved by ASTM for SAF production, with over a dozen more in the pipeline. Including co-processing would scale SAF even faster in the early years.
In addition, SAF can help balance energy costs. We are currently beholden to the global price of oil (plus an additional ‘crack spread’ to refine jet fuel – although the price of a barrel of oil has increased some 50%, the price of jet fuel has increased 100%+ meaning a more profound shock for aviation than for other sectors). The associated spikes in jet fuel prices are sometimes completely unrelated to any aviation activity. SAF would help spread that pricing across a range of variables. Whilst I don’t foresee SAF costing less than fossil jet fuel in the medium-term, at least we would have a range of inputs to help shape the global aviation energy market. Already, the International Monetary Fund has found that those States with a more diversified energy supply (for example France and Spain) have not been as badly impacted as those with energy pricing tied to fossil fuels[10].
Finally, SAF supports the wider energy transition with new jobs in more countries around the world. As the world shift away from fossil fuel and refineries close, those facilities are perfect sites for SAF production. Subsidies on fossil fuel production should be redirected towards renewables and low-carbon alternatives, boosting jobs and economic development at the same time.
It is important to be clear that SAF is not a solution to the immediate crisis. Scaling production will take time, sustained investment and supportive policy frameworks.
But the situation we find ourselves in should provide added pressure to ensure that the scale-up in alternatives to fossil jet fuel are supported by government policy, invested in by the finance sector, boosted by our traditional energy partners and purchased by the aviation players.
History shows that energy transitions often accelerate in response to crisis. However, it also shows that once stability returns, the urgency to act can quickly fade. Humans seem to be exceptionally good at responding to short-term crises and then completely forgetting about the lessons learnt as soon as things are back to normal.
We should not allow that to happen again.
When we went from whale oil to fossil oil it was only partially triggered by the increasing scarcity of whales. Something better came along. This energy transition is not only about reducing emissions with a better product. It is also about resilience, security and long-term economic opportunity. If we fail to act, we risk reinforcing the same vulnerabilities that have characterised the oil age.
Diversification is not optional. It is the foundation of a more secure, sustainable and resilient energy future.
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[1] November 2025 barrels per day output (including tar sands), 90.7% comes from (in order of output): United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iraq, China, Iran, UAE, Brazil, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Norway, Mexico, Nigeria, Libya, Qatar, Algeria, Angola, Oman, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina.
[2] Rystad Energy, November 2025: www.rystadenergy.com/news/fewer-refineries-greater-capacity-middle-east-asia-lead-charge
[3] IEA, 2023 data (latest): www.iea.org/world/energy-mix
[4] In November 2023 it was estimated oil and gas market capitalization was around 7% of total global stocks: https://visualizingenergy.org/where-are-the-worlds-most-valuable-oil-and-gas-companies
[5] The Conversation, August 2022: https://theconversation.com/for-110-years-climate-change-has-been-in-the-news-are-we-finally-ready-to-listen-188646
[6] Carbon Brief, January 2026: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-worlds-biggest-historic-polluter-the-us-is-pulling-out-of-un-climate-treaty/
[7] Latest World Meteorological Organization data, January 2026: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2025-was-one-of-warmest-years-record
[8] IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor: www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
[9] World Travel and Tourism Council: https://wttc.org/news/wttc-forecasts-the-iran-conflict-is-already-costing-the-travel-tourism-sector
[10] IMF Blog: www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance