SINGAPORE

Next five years are crucial to aviation decarbonisation journey

Waypoint 2050 report highlights actions needed to keep aviation on track towards decarbonisation.

SINGAPORE, 4 February 2026 – New analysis shows that the global aviation sector can achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 but cautions that rapid action is needed to ensure progress remains on track. The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) presented its latest Waypoint 2050 report today at the Singapore Airshow, highlighting that the long-term goal of decarbonising the civil aviation industry by 2050 is still achievable, but it will require significant support to be in place in the next five years.

“This update of the Waypoint 2050 analysis confirms that net zero aviation by 2050 remains achievable, but only if decarbonisation momentum is accelerated. The next five years are critical to ensure air transport is on course for 2050. This is a collective effort, which requires joint action from the aviation industry, governments, and the finance and energy sectors,” said Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of ATAG.

The pathways to net zero

This edition of Waypoint 2050 details the actions the aviation industry is taking and calls for support from key stakeholders to enable the decarbonisation of air transport. Developed through collaboration across the civil aviation sector, Waypoint 2050 underlines that there is no single solution to decarbonisation and outlines two illustrative scenarios that demonstrate how the sector could reach net zero by mid-century, depending on the pace of technology development, policy implementation and investment.

  • Scenario 1 positions sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the primary decarbonisation lever, supported by operational improvements and market-based measures to address residual emissions. This scenario estimates the need for around 430-500 million tonnes of SAF per year by 2050.
  • Scenario 2 explores a more technology-led pathway, with earlier deployment of advanced aircraft technologies, including hybrid-electric, pure electric and some later-stage hydrogen solutions. In this scenario, SAF and market-based measures continue to play the most important role, but with flexibility on which solutions are used to reflect market realities of the cost of transition.

Progress continues across the sector

Despite recent challenges, including supply chain disruption and geopolitical uncertainty, the aviation sector continues to make progress. Around one-third of the global fleet now consists of latest-generation aircraft, with further efficiency gains expected as new aircraft enter service. Airports are improving infrastructure and operational efficiency, and air navigation service providers are enhancing flight efficiency. Manufacturers continue to advance research into aircraft and engine technologies, including hydrogen and electric propulsion concepts.

SAF remains central to all net zero pathways. While near-term deployment has been slower than required, global SAF production has increased significantly in recent years and is expected to continue growing. Even with ambitious deployment of technology, operational improvements and SAF, some residual emissions will remain. Market-based measures, including carbon removals will therefore be an important bridge to net zero.

Dodd added: “Aviation’s energy transition is not only about cutting emissions. The net-zero pathway and roadmap of actions is an important framework to encourage investment, support jobs and create the right conditions for the continued growth in the economic and social benefits of air travel around the world. Scaling SAF will drive investment, create new jobs and support energy security and economic prosperity, especially in developing economies.” 

The next five years will be crucial 

Across the scenarios, the report highlights the importance of accelerating progress over the next five years to avoid higher costs, and more complex and abrupt transitions later.

Achieving aviation’s decarbonisation goals will require:

  • The rapid scale-up of SAF production through strengthened policies, industry and customer commitments, as well as investment in global supply chains
  • Reaffirming and expanding support for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which is vital for early action.
  • Deploying fuel-efficient aircraft faster into the fleet, which enables significant fuel saving. 
  • Modernising air traffic management systems to reduce operational emissions today.
  • Accelerating the development and scaling of high-quality, affordable carbon removals.

“Each year of delay makes net zero carbon harder and more costly to achieve. Each missed opportunity for the right policy to be deployed pushes back progress. Many of the required foundations are in place. Now, urgent acceleration is required to get to the trajectory of scale-up and deployment of key measures to reduce carbon emissions. Long-term policy certainty, investment and collaboration across the value chain will determine whether the sector stays on track,” said Dodd. 

Key facts and figures (Scenarios 1 and 2):

  • Waypoint 2050 projects an average annual traffic growth rate of approx. 3.8%, reaching 22 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050 (2.7 times higher than 8.1 trillion RPKs in 2023)
  • SAF could contribute between 38% and 58% of required carbon reductions by 2050.
  • Improving the way the sector operates and provides infrastructure could reduce emissions by 9%.
  • Next generation aircraft technology could contribute another 12% to 21% of emissions reductions by 2050 depending on the adoption of hydrogen, electric and hybrid electric aircraft over the coming decades. 
  • Market-based measures, including emissions avoidance, reductions and removals will likely be needed for 19% to 32% of residual emissions.

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